Residential real estate purchases listed in the MLS system for the Venice area have gone from less than 5% being made on an all cash basis prior to the economic crisis, compared to over 60% each year from 2010 to this (MFRMLS, 2015). It also appears that the area’s cash sales volume cannot merely be attributed to investors picking up foreclosed properties. Two local builders’ representatives report 50-60% of their communities’ new home sales have been made with all cash in the past couple of years, and that the volume of sales and demand have greatly exceeded corporate expectations during that time as well. The total number of residential home sales recorded in the local MLS system for 2014 was actually 38% higher than the total for the 2005 calendar year in the midst of the housing bubble (MFRMLS, 2015). This also indicates that the proportion of purchases made with lending cannot significantly be attributed merely to increase lending standards that are subsequently eliminating a section from the market or from the clearing of foreclosures as some would claim.
Local Market Analysis
Venice, Florida, Area Characteristics
Description. Lifestyle characteristics. Venice is a quiet suburban location conveniently placed in between a number of more metropolitan areas with major airports. Sarasota is a mere 20 minutes away, about an hour to Fort Myers, Tampa is about an hour and a half drive, while Orlando and its attractions are only about 2.5 hours away. The Tamiami Trail, Route 41, is a major traffic corridor through the city and lays approximately midway between the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and Interstate 75. It has a charming historic downtown are with a park, theater, restaurants and shopping. There are many local golf courses in and near Venice.
Population. Venice, itself, is a small city with a population of just over 21,000 (Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 2014) located in Sarasota County, Florida. This figure is for the city proper and not including the greater range of Venice addresses. Available data is not exactly clear as to the population estimate for the broader targeted Venice ‘area.’ The applicable zip codes that can have Venice mailing addresses are: 34275, 34285, 34292, and 34293. Properties within the last three listed all would have Venice addresses. A very small percentage of residences within the 34275 zip code currently have Venice mailing addresses. Population estimates from the 2013 American Community Survey for the three zip codes combined are 65,623 persons in 2013, 64,395 in 2012, and 64,062 in 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010). According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, “in 2012, Sarasota [County] had a total personal income (TPI) of $21,400,975. This TPI ranked 11th in the state and accounted for 2.7 percent of the state total. In 2002, the TPI of Sarasota was $14,447,855 and ranked 10th in the state” (Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 2014, para. 2).
Population characteristics
Age of population. The area is known for having an older population, as it is popular for retirees. Florida, in general, has a reputation for its substantial number of seniors, which for 2013 was estimated to have 18.7% of its population at 65 years of age or older (“Sarasota County Quick Facts,” 2013). The statistic for Sarasota County during the same timeframe was significantly higher at 33.3% of the population (“Sarasota County Quick Facts,” 2013). “Among Florida’s counties, Sarasota County has the third‐highest percentage of residents aged 65 and over, the second‐highest percent‐age of residents aged 75 and over, and the highest percentage of residents aged 85 and over” (Sarasota County Planning Services [SCPS], 2012, July, p. 1). The Venice area of Sarasota County is comprised of sections with a generally higher median age than much of the rest of the county at a figure greater than 64 years of age, as can be seen in Figure 1 from Sarasota County Planning Services (SCPS, 2012).
Economic status. Only about 9% of the population was persons below the poverty level from 2008-2012 (U.S. Census Bureau, n.d.). The majority of people own their own home, at 72%, with a median home value of $180,800 for owner-occupied units, and the median household income is $46,404 (U.S. Census Bureau, n.d.). It might be argued that the household income figure could be somewhat deceptive, however, as it does not include capital gains or some supplemental retirement benefits (U.S. Census Bureau, n.d.). These are likely to be, or have been for the data referenced, sources of income for the many residents of the area. As a result, using the household income figures from the U.S. Census Bureau (n.d.) could potentially create a significantly skewed view of the local economy. Additionally, the Census Bureau’s income figure is pre-expenses, so it is before mortgage expenses, etc. An area where a higher proportion of the population owns their residence outright will also have a higher proportion of discretionary income compared to another area with similar household income figures. The impacts of this excluded income and of expense differences may warrant future research to determine if it is the case, and if so, to what degree.
Residential units. The Sarasota County Property Appraiser’s website was utilized to search and download data spreadsheets on August 1st, 2015, listing all properties within applicable zip codes (Sarasota County Property Appraiser [SCPA], 2015). From the list of all properties gathered for each zip code, non-residential and vacant or units under construction were eliminated from consideration. Subdivisions were included for consideration where mailing addresses of ‘Venice’ or ‘North Venice’ in instances that the physical street address matched the mailing address. Three instances of this criterion were also included that were listed as not in a subdivision. The result is an estimated 1,443 residential units for zip code 34275 that would be considered Venice area domiciles. There are 11,915 residential units listed for the City of Venice with zip code 34285. Zip code 34292 all have Venice physical addresses listed. There are 8,187 completed residential units in place within zip code 34292. Zip code 34293 resulted in 20,240 residential units in place. This totals 41,785 residences contained in the research target area of Venice area.
Growth. According to Census.gov’s State and County Quick Facts for Venice, Florida, the 2013 population estimate is 21,253 individuals; this is a 2.4% increase over the 2010 U.S. Census (U.S. Census Bureau, n.d.). Venice is 15.27 square miles with approximately 1359 persons per square mile, according to the 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau, n.d.). At the time of the Census, only 6.1% of the population was under 18 years of age, while 57% of the population was comprised of individuals 65 years of age and older (U.S. Census Bureau, n.d.).
It is considered an area of high-growth due to considerable expansion in new home construction (Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 2014). And, according to the local MLS (My Florida Regional MLS [MFRMLS], 2014; MFRMLS, 2015), the volume of home sales has been on a considerable upward trend in the past 5 years, increasing an average of 15% per year from 2008 through 2013 (Figure 2). Increases in new home construction and increases in sales volumes indicate an increasing demand, while the number of active listings (Figure 3) has been on a downward trend over the past 5 years (MFRMLS, 2014). A housing economist for Trulia says that their data shows this market area is currently one of the top ten fastest moving in the nation (McLaughlin, 2015).
Figure 1. Count of Active Listings by Year and Month (MFRMLS, 2015)
Figure 2. Venice Residential Sales by Month for Past 5 Years (MFRMLS, 2015)
Figure 3. Venice Residential Average Sales Price by Month for Past 5 Years (MFRMLS, 2015)
The proportion of residents over 65 is projected to grow to about 40% by the year 2030 (SCPS, 2012), as the last of the Baby Boomer generation reaches retirement age. The population is anticipated and planned to grow with other age categories as well (SCPS, 2012). The resident population of Sarasota County is estimated at about 390,000 for 2014 with an additional winter seasonal population of 100,000 (SCPS, 2015). Sarasota County Planning Services [SCPS] says that the population is growing at less than 1% currently, or about 5 new residents per day (SCPS, 2015, p. 2). However, that rate is expected to increase dramatically over the next decade, with an anticipated average of 2,000 new housing units added per year to accommodate the growth (SCPS, 2015). Permits for new residential units reached 1,196 in 2014, up over 382% since the low figure in 2009 (SCPS, 2015). SCPS also reports that two-thirds of the growth that was seen for the county during 2011 through 2013 was in South County (SCPS, 2015, p. 2), which is predominantly comprised of the area targeted in the scope of this review.
Final Commentary
Venice, Florida, is a growing resort-style, coastal area popular for retirement living. With Baby Boomers reaching retirement age in greater volume, and many finally seeing their retirement funds recovered from the downturn, the housing market demand is escalating for the area. This is clearly shown by the data. Increases in new home construction and increases in sales volumes indicate an rising demand and sales prices, while the number of active listings has been on a downward trend over the past 5 years (MFRMLS, 2015). The local Neighborhood Development Services Department recently received 42 applications for new home permits in the target area from just one builder in one single day (City of North Port, 2015, p. 4). In the consecutive 8 months through June 2015, that same department issued a total of 528 residential building permits (City of North Port, 2015, p. 4). The local real estate market for Venice, Florida, is certainly taking off, and the future outlook suggests that a home purchase in the area may be a very good option from a personal investment perspective. If you are considering a home here, act sooner rather than later due to rising home values.
Please, check out my website, and contact me for more information!
Look forward to hearing from you!
Ali
References
Bureau of Economic and Business Research. (2014). Florida estimates of population 2014: April 1, 2014. Retrieved from University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research: http://www.edr.state.fl.us/Content/population-demographics/data/PopulationEstimates2014.pdf
City of North Port. (2015, Summer). North Port grows in rooftops and businesses. North Port Currents.
McLaughlin, R. (2015, August 25). America’s fastest moving markets finally slowing down [Blog post]. Retrieved from http://www.trulia.com/trends/2015/08/fast-moving-markets-aug2015/
My Florida Regional MLS. (2014). Stats: Historical sales volumes [Data file]. Retrieved from http://www.mfrmls.com
My Florida Regional MLS [MFRMLS]. (2015). Stats: Venice home sales by year, with financing filter of cash and not cash [Data file]. Retrieved June 23, 2015, from http://mfr.mlsmatrix.com/
Sarasota County Planning Services. (2012, July). How are we aging? Retrieved from https://www.scgov.net/PlanningServices/Demographic%20Profiles/How%20are%20we%20aging.pdf
Sarasota County Planning Services. (2015). Demographic trends: Developer’s roundtable. Retrieved from https://www.scgov.net/PlanningServices/Demographic%20Presentations/Demographic%20Trends%20-%20Developers’%20Roundtable%20Jan%202015.pdf
Sarasota County Property Appraiser. (2015, August 1). Property search: Advanced search [Data file]. : .
State & county Quick Facts: Sarasota County, Florida. (2013). Retrieved from http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/12/12115.html
U.S. Census Bureau. (2010). DP05, ACS demographic and housing estimates: 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates [Data]. Retrieved from http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_facts.xhtml#none
U.S. Census Bureau. (n.d.). State & county quick facts: Sarasota, FL [Data table]. Retrieved from http://quickfacts.census.gov
If you are considering purchasing a home in this community, I can assist you. My services and extensive resources are of no cost to you, and in most instances, I am able to save home buyers some money. I do not work for any of the wonderful builders in the West Villages Improvement District, or any others for that matter. My services and information (including the resources provided on all of my websites) are wholly independent of these developers. No other independent professional is more knowledgeable about this community, and enlisting me to assist with your transaction also serves to fund these resources to keep them available for you and others on an ongoing basis.
Aileen “Ali” Johnston, MHA, MBA in Real Estate
Realtor®, Hoover Realty LLC
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